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We study the impact of the 2015 mass arrival of refugees to Germany on residential housing rents. Using unique data on end of year county-level refugee populations and data on monthly offers of flats for rent from Germany’s leading online property broker Immobilienscout24 we find strong evidence in difference-in-differences regressions for a negative effect of refugee immigration on rental prices. Adverse price effects however appear attenuated in the heyday of the crisis in late 2015 if a larger share of refugees is housed in decentralized accommodation. Various robustness checks corroborate our findings including IV regressions that exploit for identification information on the pre-crisis location of refugee reception centers and group quarters. |
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