Power generation and structural change : quantifying economic effects of the coal phase-out in Germany / Katja Heinisch, Oliver Holtemöller, Christoph Schult
VerfasserHeinisch, Katja ; Holtemöller, Oliver ; Schult, Christoph
ErschienenHalle (Saale), Germany : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, [2020]
This draft: November 2020
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (III, ca. 113 Seiten, 11,95 MB) : Diagramme
SerieIWH-Diskussionspapiere ; 2019, no. 16 (August 2019)
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Power generation and structural change [11.95 mb]
In the fight against global warming the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is a major objective. In particular a decrease in electricity generation by coal could contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. We study potential economic consequences of a coal phase-out in Germany using a multi-region dynamic general equilibrium model. Four regional phase-out scenarios before the end of 2040 are simulated. We find that the worst case phase-out scenario would lead to an increase in the aggre-gate unemployment rate by about 0.13 [0.09 minimum; 0.18 maximum] percentage points from 2020 to 2040. The effect on regional unemployment rates varies be-tween 0.18 [0.13; 0.22] and 1.07 [1.00; 1.13] percentage points in the lignite regions. A faster coal phase-out can lead to a faster recovery. The coal phase-out leads to migration from German lignite regions to German non-lignite regions and reduces the labour force in the lignite regions by 10 100 [6 300; 12 300] people by 2040. A coal phase-out until 2035 is not worse in terms of welfare consumption and employ- ment compared to a coal-exit until 2040.