Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index : a new employment series for the US, Canada, and the UK / Ufuk Akcigit, Raman Chhina, Seyit Cilasun, Javier Miranda, Eren Ocakverdi, Nicolas Serrano-Velarde
VerfasserAkcigit, Ufuk ; Chhina, Raman ; Cilasun, Seyit ; Miranda, Javier ; Ocakverdi, Eren ; Serrano-Velarde, Nicolas
KörperschaftLeibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle
ErschienenHalle (Saale), Germany : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, May 2023
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (III, 59 Seiten, 2,45 MB) : Diagramme
SerieIWH-Diskussionspapiere ; 2023, no. 9 (May 2023)
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Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index [2.45 mb]
Small and young businesses are essential for job creation innovation and economic growth. Even most of the superstar firms start their business life small and then grow over time. Small firms have less internal resources which makes them more fragile and sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. This suggests the need for frequent and real-time monitoring of the small business sector’s health. Previously this was difficult due to a lack of appropriate data. This paper fills this important gap by developing a new Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index that focuses on the smallest of small businesses with at most 9 workers in the US and the UK and at most 19 workers in Canada. The Index aggregates a sample of anonymous QuickBooks Online Payroll subscriber data (QBO Payroll sample) from 333 000 businesses in the US 66 000 in Canada and 25 000 in the UK. After comparing the QBO Payroll sample data to the official statistics we remove the seasonal components and use a Flexible Least Squares method to calibrate the QBO Payroll sample data against official statistics. Finally we use the estimated model and the QBO Payroll sample data to generate a near real-time index of economic activity. We show that the estimated model performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Additionally we use this analysis for different regions and industries.